22 Jul · 01:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ON
🇺🇦Oleh Napirko
ELO 1463
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Napirko
SK
🇺🇦Serhii Kalenyk
ELO 1432
FormWLWWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kalenyk🌟Napirko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (75)
Fair odds · Napirko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H13-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.