22 Jul · 01:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OK
🇺🇦Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
ELO 1407
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Chelpanov
SC
🇺🇦Serhii Chelpanov
ELO 1436
FormLLLLW
47%
53%
🌟Chelpanov rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (56)
Fair odds · Chelpanov
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 69% · 1.46· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H55-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.