22 Jul · 07:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
EP
🇺🇦Eduard Populovskyi
ELO 1508
FormLWWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Osadchyi
OO
🇺🇦Oleksandr Osadchyi
ELO 1584
FormWWWLL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Osadchyi
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+76
H2H6-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+76)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-4)