22 Jul · 09:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LH
🇺🇦Lukas Heinzl
ELO 1605
FormWLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Heinzl
LA
🇺🇦Lukas Adam
ELO 1572
FormLWWWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Adam🌟Adam covers set handicap as underdog 64% (58)
Fair odds · Heinzl
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H22-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.