23 Jul · 09:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AR
🇺🇦Andrii Romanenko
ELO 1578
FormLLLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Chaikovskyi
BC
🇺🇦Bohdan Chaikovskyi
ELO 1651
FormWWWLL
42%
58%
🌟Romanenko covers set handicap as underdog 70% (66)
Fair odds · Chaikovskyi
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+73
H2H31-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+73)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (31-11)