23 Jul · 12:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IS
🇺🇦Ihor Sukovatyi
ELO 1587
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pohonov
OP
🇺🇦Oleksandr Pohonov
ELO 1596
FormLWLLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sukovatyi🌟Pohonov rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (142)
Fair odds · Pohonov
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H34-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.