23 Jul · 06:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AR
🇺🇦Andrii Romanenko
ELO 1578
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Pohonov
OP
🇺🇦Oleksandr Pohonov
ELO 1596
FormLWLLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Romanenko🌟Romanenko covers set handicap as underdog 70% (66)
Fair odds · Pohonov
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H32-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.