23 Jul · 12:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇺🇦Matej Svitac
ELO 1515
FormLLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Semrad
PS
🇺🇦Petr Semrad
ELO 1554
FormLLWWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Svitac🌟Svitac covers set handicap as underdog 83% (12)
Fair odds · Semrad
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H1-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.