23 Jul · 11:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Maksymiv
ELO 1685
FormWWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Maksymiv
BC
🇺🇦Bohdan Chaikovskyi
ELO 1651
FormWWWLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chaikovskyi
Fair odds · Maksymiv
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H40-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.