23 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PS
🇺🇦Pavlo Shulhachyk
ELO 1600
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Shulhachyk
MP
🇺🇦Mykola Pohorilyi
ELO 1593
FormLWLWW
51%
49%
🌟Pohorilyi stays under total as underdog 70% (40)
Fair odds · Shulhachyk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H19-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.