23 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇺🇦Marcel Cmil
ELO 1419
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Cmil
AA
🇺🇦Artur Akopyan
ELO 1381
FormWLWLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Akopyan🌟Cmil rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (83)
Fair odds · Cmil
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H41-37
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.