23 Jul · 08:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AR
🇺🇦Andrii Romanenko
ELO 1578
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sukovatyi
IS
🇺🇦Ihor Sukovatyi
ELO 1587
FormLLLWW
49%
51%
🌟Romanenko covers set handicap as underdog 70% (66)
Fair odds · Sukovatyi
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H22-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.