23 Jul · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇺🇦Marcel Cmil
ELO 1419
FormLWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Cmil
MV
🇺🇦Milan Vydra
ELO 1397
FormLLLLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vydra🌟Cmil rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (83)
Fair odds · Cmil
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H13-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.