24 Jul · 09:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1559
FormLLWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kovshun
YK
🇺🇦Yaroslav Kovshun
ELO 1564
FormLLLLW
50%
50%
🌟Karpenko covers set handicap as underdog 69% (72)
Fair odds · Kovshun
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H20-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.