24 Jul · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SB
🇺🇦Serhii Balabei
ELO 1754
FormWWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Balabei
RH
🇺🇦Roman Horokh
ELO 1733
FormLWWLW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Balabei
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H84-148
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.