24 Jul · 11:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇺🇦Jakub Simek
ELO 1507
FormLLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Svitac
MS
🇺🇦Matej Svitac
ELO 1540
FormWLWWL
46%
54%
🌟Svitac rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (47)
Fair odds · Svitac
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.