24 Jul · 10:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OZ
🇺🇦Oleksandr Zhyrnov
ELO 1577
FormWWLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Riadynskyi
YR
🇺🇦Yehor Riadynskyi
ELO 1649
FormWWWWW
42%
58%
🌟Zhyrnov covers set handicap as underdog 64% (67)
Fair odds · Riadynskyi
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+72
H2H29-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (29-8)