24 Jul · 17:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇺🇦Maksym Mrykh
ELO 1547
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mrykh
AD
🇺🇦Andrii Droshchynskyi
ELO 1534
FormLLLWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Droshchynskyi🌟Droshchynskyi covers set handicap as underdog 65% (20)
Fair odds · Mrykh
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H0-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.