24 Jul · 08:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LD
🇺🇦Ladislav Dobias
ELO 1638
FormLLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Dobias
LH
🇺🇦Lukas Heinzl
ELO 1604
FormLWLWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Heinzl🌟Heinzl covers set handicap as underdog 70% (43)
Fair odds · Dobias
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H39-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.