24 Jul · 15:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇺🇦Martin Melisek
ELO 1592
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Provaznik
LP
🇺🇦Lukas Provaznik
ELO 1597
FormWWWWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Melisek🌟Melisek goes over total as underdog 70% (20)
Fair odds · Provaznik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H1-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.