24 Jul · 15:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AK
🇺🇦Anatolii Kuzmenko
ELO 1483
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Denysenko
MD
🇺🇦Maksym Denysenko
ELO 1495
FormLLLWL
49%
51%
🌟Kuzmenko stays under total as underdog 77% (13)
Fair odds · Denysenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.