24 Jul · 13:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇺🇦Matej Svitac
ELO 1540
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Semrad
PS
🇺🇦Petr Semrad
ELO 1550
FormWLLWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Svitac🌟Svitac covers set handicap as underdog 83% (12)
Fair odds · Semrad
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H1-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.