25 Jul · 09:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
YK
🇺🇦Yaroslav Kravets
ELO 1517
FormWLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Zeniuk
DZ
🇺🇦Dmytro Zeniuk
ELO 1558
FormLLLLL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kravets🌟Kravets covers set handicap as underdog 69% (62)
Fair odds · Zeniuk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H2-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.