25 Jul · 07:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LP
🇺🇦Lukas Provaznik
ELO 1605
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Provaznik
LK
🇺🇦Leon Kolman
ELO 1592
FormWWLWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolman🌟Kolman covers set handicap as underdog 75% (55)
Fair odds · Provaznik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H4-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.