25 Jul · 08:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PA
🇺🇦Petr Abraham
ELO 1512
FormWLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Abraham
VH
🇺🇦Vit Herrmann
ELO 1464
FormLLWLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Abraham
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H15-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+48)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-11)