25 Jul · 08:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DP
🇺🇦Denys Pesternikov
ELO 1708
FormLLWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Pesternikov
DS
🇺🇦Denys Shcherbak
ELO 1620
FormWLLWW
59%
41%
Fair odds · Pesternikov
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~73 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
19%
3-0
18%
1-3
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+88
H2H42-26
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+88)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (42-26)