25 Jul · 06:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IF
🇺🇦Ivan Fashchevskyi
ELO 1514
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Potapov
MP
🇺🇦Mykhailo Potapov
ELO 1554
FormLLWWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fashchevskyi🌟Fashchevskyi covers set handicap as underdog 70% (82)
Fair odds · Potapov
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H9-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.