25 Jul · 07:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
YK
🇺🇦Yaroslav Kravets
ELO 1517
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lazebny
RL
🇺🇦Ruslan Lazebny
ELO 1524
FormLLWWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kravets🌟Kravets covers set handicap as underdog 69% (62)
Fair odds · Lazebny
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.