25 Jul · 07:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇺🇦Martin Skyba
ELO 1555
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Brichacek
DB
🇺🇦David Brichacek
ELO 1584
FormLWWLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Brichacek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.