25 Jul · 08:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇺🇦Martin Skyba
ELO 1555
FormLLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kolman
LK
🇺🇦Leon Kolman
ELO 1592
FormWWLWL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Kolman
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.