25 Jul · 08:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LP
🇺🇦Lukas Provaznik
ELO 1605
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Provaznik
DB
🇺🇦David Brichacek
ELO 1584
FormLWWLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Brichacek🌟Brichacek covers set handicap as underdog 64% (36)
Fair odds · Provaznik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H5-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.