25 Jul · 10:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OG
🇺🇦Oleksii Gazhula
ELO 1511
FormLLLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Potapov
MP
🇺🇦Mykhailo Potapov
ELO 1554
FormLLWWW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Potapov
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~72 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H12-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-6)