25 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Ponomarenko
ELO 1365
FormLLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Ponomarenko
MT
🇺🇦Maksym Tkalich
ELO 1324
FormWWLLL
54%
46%
🌟Ponomarenko stays under total as favourite 69% (35)
Fair odds · Ponomarenko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~73 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H19-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.