25 Jul · 06:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Ponomarenko
ELO 1365
FormLLLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Semenets
SS
🇺🇦Serhii Semenets
ELO 1421
FormWWWLL
44%
56%
🌟Semenets rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (77)
Fair odds · Semenets
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+56
H2H15-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+56)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-12)