25 Jul · 08:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OZ
🇺🇦Oleksandr Zhyrnov
ELO 1581
FormWWLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Lievshin
AL
🇺🇦Anatolii Lievshin
ELO 1671
FormWWLWW
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zhyrnov🌟Zhyrnov covers set handicap as underdog 64% (67)
Fair odds · Lievshin
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~75 pts
1-3
23%
2-3
19%
0-3
18%
3-1
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+90
H2H5-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+90)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-4)