27 Jul · 05:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AR
🇺🇦Andrii Romanenko
ELO 1568
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Romanenko
OP
🇺🇦Oleksandr Pohonov
ELO 1562
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Romanenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H17-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.