26 Jul · 15:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
VM
🇺🇦Valeriy Melnik
ELO 1631
FormWWWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Tuzhylin
AT
🇺🇦Alexander Tuzhylin
ELO 1714
FormLWWWW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Tuzhylin
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+83
H2H86-60
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+83)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (86-60)