27 Jul · 03:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SP
🇺🇦Serhii Pitsyk
ELO 1464
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stepanchuk
YS
🇺🇦Yaroslav Stepanchuk
ELO 1474
FormLWWLL
49%
51%
🌟Stepanchuk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (69)
Fair odds · Stepanchuk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H12-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.