26 Jul · 19:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OA
🇺🇦Oleksandr Alieksieev
ELO 1639
FormWLWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Alieksieev
YP
🇺🇦Yurii Parahailo
ELO 1556
FormLLWLL
59%
41%
🌟Alieksieev stays under total as favourite 62% (37)
Fair odds · Alieksieev
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~74 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+83
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+83)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)