27 Jul · 01:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IS
🇺🇦Ihor Sukovatyi
ELO 1586
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sukovatyi
OP
🇺🇦Oleksandr Pohonov
ELO 1562
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Sukovatyi
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H19-34
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.