27 Jul · 00:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RG
🇺🇦Roman Gnoevoy
ELO 1539
FormLLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Derevynskyi
DD
🇺🇦Dmytro Derevynskyi
ELO 1559
FormWWLLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Gnoevoy🌟Gnoevoy covers set handicap as underdog 68% (71)
Fair odds · Derevynskyi
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H37-39
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.