26 Jul · 22:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SR
🇺🇦Serhii Rak
ELO 1630
FormWWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Rak
NH
🇺🇦Nikita Hoshko
ELO 1593
FormLLWWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Rak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.