26 Jul · 06:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OM
🇺🇦Oleksii Mitla
ELO 1390
FormLLWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Smyrnov
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1460
FormWLLWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Smyrnov
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+70
H2H38-44
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)