26 Jul · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SA
🇺🇦Serhii Aristarkhov
ELO 1670
FormWWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Aristarkhov
MH
🇺🇦Maksym Hubenko
ELO 1630
FormWLLWL
54%
46%
🌟Hubenko rarely covers set handicap as underdog 37% (67)
Fair odds · Aristarkhov
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~73 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H22-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.