27 Jul · 07:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AT
🇺🇦Andrey Troyan
ELO 1577
FormWWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Troyan
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1536
FormWLLLL
54%
46%
🌟Karpenko covers set handicap as underdog 68% (76)
Fair odds · Troyan
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H31-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.