27 Jul · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇺🇦Miroslav Vana
ELO 1456
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Seeman
JS
🇺🇦Jan Seeman
ELO 1463
FormLLWLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vana🌟Vana covers set handicap as underdog 62% (24)
Fair odds · Seeman
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.