27 Jul · 08:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇺🇦Martin Vana
ELO 1585
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vana
MV
🇺🇦Marek Vyskocil
ELO 1568
FormLLWLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Vana
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H2-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.