27 Jul · 08:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DN
🇺🇦Daniil Novakov
ELO 1509
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stetsenko
MS
🇺🇦Maksym Stetsenko
ELO 1523
FormWLWWL
49%
51%
🌟Stetsenko stays under total as favourite 64% (76)
Fair odds · Stetsenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~72 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H17-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.