27 Jul · 08:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VK
🇺🇦Valerii Kolesnykov
ELO 1557
FormWLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kolesnykov
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1536
FormWLLLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Karpenko🌟Karpenko covers set handicap as underdog 68% (76)
Fair odds · Kolesnykov
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H23-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.