27 Jul · 07:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇺🇦Anatoliy Lysyi
ELO 1374
FormWLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lysyi
DN
🇺🇦Dmytro Novik
ELO 1344
FormLLLWL
53%
47%
⚡ Cover lean · Lysyi🌟Novik stays under total as underdog 71% (34)
Fair odds · Lysyi
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H7-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.